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June 2012

Why Greece is a big deal

I’ve read in several different places that a Greek exit from the European Monetary union is not a big deal because Greece’s economy is small and represents only a small fraction of the economic output of the eurozone. Besides, it is already discounted in the markets. I disagree.Remember in the ’90s, when the Thai baht crashed, people said that Thailand was such a small part of Asia that there would …Read More

Analysis: Little to like about last week’s employment data

Worse yet, the March and April Establishment Survey reports were revised downward by 49,000, not an insignificant revision. So, employment has been much weaker than originally indicated for the past three months. Further, we’ve recently seen an upward pop in the weekly first-time applications for unemployment insurance. The more comprehensive unemployment rate (U-6, which is the broadest measure of labor-market slack) rose to 14.8%, from 14.5%. We are seeing employers …Read More