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April 2013

What trends on Wall Street, Main Street mean

In trying to make sense of what is going on in the economy, both on Wall Street and Main Street, the most important thing to remember is in the “new normal” paradigm, one cannot use recent historical perspective. Simply put, in the past five years, the structural changes in the U.S. economy have been so dramatic that today’s economy more closely resembles that of Europe or Japan than it does …Read More

Inflation could be closer than we think right now

Mohammed El-Erian of PIMCO coined the phrase “new normal” in 2009 to describe what he observed to be a new, slower growth, a paradigm for the U.S. economy. Now, El-Erian, A. Gary Shilling and others are forecasting an end to the “new normal.” One can presume that means a return of the “old normal,” where the non-inflationary level of unemployment is about 5 percent and potential economic growth is 3.5 …Read More