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December 2013

8 U.S. business predictions for 2014

The holiday season is the traditional time of year to prognosticate about the upcoming year. But, before I start, I want to make a distinction between short-term and long-term forecasts. Long-term trends are just that, and they unfold slowly. And, while I have great concerns about the long-term consequences of inflation, the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, the bloated Fed balance sheet and resulting excess bank reserves, and …Read More

Part I: The Short-Term Outlook – A Strong and Accelerating Economy

Those who read our blogs know that over the past 6 months or so, we have turned positive on the underlying private sector of the U.S. economy.  We have had comments from several readers about this apparent change of heart, some of them almost in disbelief.  So, let us dispel any doubts.  There is a huge difference between the short-term and the long-term outlooks.  Let’s realize that long-term trends are …Read More

Part II: The Long-Term Outlook – Even a Strong Economy Doesn’t Change the Ultimate Outcome

If you’ve read Part I of this year end outlook, you know that it is our view that the underlying private sector is healthy and, except for the fact that the real rate of inflation is much faster than the ‘official’ rate, we could well have a short period of prosperity. Unfortunately, our long-term outlook is not as sanguine as our short-term view.  The eventual recognition of the inflation issue, …Read More

Remember the Good Old Days? They’re Back!

The mainstream business media continue to worry about a faltering economy, most notably of late, a fixation on the fear of a poor retail holiday shopping season. This makes one yearn for those good old days of a vibrant economy, like what we had in 2005-06. But wait! Except for the construction of new housing units and some problems measuring aggregate demand, the underlying data indicate that the good old …Read More