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October 2016

Painted into a Corner A Review of the Economic Environment Entering Q4/16

While Q3 started out much better than the very slow economy of the first half of 2016, August’s data was very weak although there was some bounce in September.  So, we enter Q4 with some serious concerns about the fragile state of the economy, where an outside shock or policy mistake could have serious consequences.  Unfortunately, the policy tools, or lack thereof, that are available should the economy slip into …Read More

The 1937 mistake – will Fed make it again?

The markets breathed a sigh of relief (up 164 followed by 99 Dow points) when, in the middle of September, the Fed decided not to raise the federal funds rate. The DJIA was as high as 18,538 on Sept. 6, but fell 504 points over the next six trading days, including three days in a row of significant gyrations (down 395, up 240, down 258). The past week continued the …Read More