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December 2016

The Trump Rally

For the third time in six months, markets reacted opposite to expectations.  First, it was Brexit.  Markets swooned after the unexpected vote.  That lasted for two days before markets shook off the surprise and headed higher.  Last month, when Trump won, the swoon lasted a whole 9 hours, and the tantrum ended just prior to the opening of U.S. markets.  On Sunday, December 4th, when Italy voted “no” on PM …Read More

Are markets too exuberant?

Equity markets hit new highs during the Thanksgiving shortened week. Markets often move in anticipation of changes in policy. This post election market, however, appears to have instantaneously adjusted to what it perceives will be policy outcomes. Such outcomes, however, are by no means guaranteed; some outcomes may take several quarters, others years, if at all. This has been quite a stretch for markets where next month is considered “long-term.” There …Read More