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April 2017

The Risk of Recession is Rising; So is Market Risk

Recession: This is the hardest world for any business economist to pen, especially when the equity market is on a tear.  Nevertheless, that is the reality of a slow growth, deflationary world where not much negative must happen to push the 1% growth economy into negative territory.  Post-election, markets initially rose on the hopes of economic stimulus from the Trump administration.  Then, they flattened as prospects for rapid policy changes …Read More

Hope is Not a Good Investment Strategy

According to the Bespoke Investment Group, every year, Wall Street analysts declare that the stock market will rise, and since 2000, the annual average forecast has been for a 9.5% gain.  The reality is that the market has only risen at a 3.9% rate over this time frame.  The 2008 forecast was for a market increase of 11%; the reality was -38%.  To say that Wall Street promotes the stock …Read More