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July 2018

Inflation’s Virulence will Surprise: Yield Curve Inversion Likely

•  The strength of inflation will be the biggest market surprise in 2018’s second half, forcing the Fed to continue its rate raising regime; •  At the same time, the slowdown in world growth (not helped by the rise of protectionism) may keep the world’s other major central banks in easy money mode, thus feeding U.S. dollar strength and negatively impacting emerging market economies; •  Low rates, worldwide, increase the …Read More

Trade Wars Will Slow Growth

Q3 started out with several very positive days in the equity markets, due to the seeming “Goldilocks” economy (solid growth, low inflation, best employment market in 50 years), likely in anticipation of continued 20%+ earnings reports (the tailwind of tax reduction), and, at least in the early days of July, from a lack of any significant moves on the tariff and trade front. That all ended on July 11th when …Read More