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March 2019

Fallout From Fed Dovishness

The rate setting committee of the Fed met on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 19 and 20. What the Market Saw and Heard From their formal statement and press conference, the equity market saw and heard only what it wanted, at least at first, and equity markets rose on Thursday, March 21st (Dow Jones +217): No rate hikes in 2019, and possibly only one in 2020 (and that one would occur because …Read More

Where’s The Recession, You Ask? Reprise

The narrative is that the “soft patch”, now so evident in U.S. data, is temporary, related to factors like weather, the government shut-down, and/or trade/tariffs. The Atlanta Fed, where GDP forecasts always seem to come out on the high side, put Q1’s real GDP growth at just +0.3%. And, the N.Y. Fed’s model says +0.9%. In any case, even the most ardent bulls have at least recognized that current data …Read More