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March 2020

The Recession Has Arrived, & with a Vengeance

For some time, I have outlined the growing softness in the U.S. and world economies.  Most of the recent data is pre-virus, and are generally meaningless.  The numbers we will get for March will be awful, but the worst is yet to come.  An example of March’s data is from the Philly Fed.  The print of their Manufacturing Index was -12.7 for March, down a record amount from the +36.7 …Read More

The “Avoidance” Reaction

Preamble I received an email from my travel agent last Monday (March 2) informing me that, because Italy had been raised to a Travel Level 3 by the CDC (strongly advised not to travel there), our vacation to Italy (March 12-22) had to be postponed, else we risked being quarantined upon our return.  In addition, the previous Friday, two corporate meetings in my immediate schedule for the week in the …Read More