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May 2020

What Normal Could Look Like

The economy of the future will feature more consumer savings, and business balance sheet repair (more cash, more cost, lower profits, and deferred capital expenditures).  After an initial spike up likely starting in June and continuing into Q3, growth will be difficult.  Unemployment, after spiking to the mid-20% range, will come down slowly, remaining in double digits for 2020 and perhaps getting below 10% in 2022. Inflation Inflation is coming, …Read More

A Commonsense View Of The Shape Of The Recovery

Because economies are reopening or partially opening in the U.S., the likely bottom of the Pandemic Recession will be this quarter. The debate is now over the shape of the Recovery. Letters have been used to describe what authors/economists/investment houses believe. “V” shaped is clearly what the equity bulls believe. Some describe it as a “U.” A “W” would occur if we had a second virus wave. Still others believe we will have an “L” shaped …Read More

On Reopening: We’ve Just Seen The Iceberg’s Tip

New Data Should Accelerate Re-Opening When the pandemic started, the only data available was the number of new cases, existing cases, and deaths. The original models, perhaps based on prior pandemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918, forecast significant deaths, up to as many as 2 million in the U.S., and, of course, mass infections. Based on that, governments all over the world shut-down their economies. New mortality data is now available …Read More