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July 2020

Recessionary Impacts: ‘Down The Road’

When JPMorganChase reported earnings in mid-July, CEO Jamie Dimon quipped: “This is not a normal recession… the recessionary part of this you’re going to see down the road.” This observation is spot on. Dimon was observing that, while government had shut down much of the “nonessential” (i.e., 80%) economy, they also transferred $2.1 trillion to private households which more than made up for the $720+ billion of lost wages. We have seen many …Read More

A ‘W’ Recovery, Obstructed By Bankruptcies And Unemployment

The Recession’s ending isn’t the story – it is whether or not the Recovery lives up to its billing. In truth, the Recovery’s shape was never going to be a CAPITAL “V.” Like in the post-Great Depression period or the post-1918 pandemic period, consumer behavior will radically change. And, there is a lot of evidence that that has already begun. In those past periods, consumers became more frugal, and today’s data shows a surge …Read More

The Recovery: With Reversed State Openings, Expect A Flattening

The “Shape of the Recovery” graph that I drew a couple of months ago appears to be playing out almost exactly as forecasted (guessed!). The outlook for Q2, just ended, is now congregating around that -40% mark. We will see the first pass at Q2 GDP at month’s end. Stay tuned! April was the bottom of the Recession, that’s for sure. It looks like May and part of June had the sharp upward pop, …Read More