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Are markets too exuberant?

Equity markets hit new highs during the Thanksgiving shortened week. Markets often move in anticipation of changes in policy. This post election market, however, appears to have instantaneously adjusted to what it perceives will be policy outcomes. Such outcomes, however, are by no means guaranteed; some outcomes may take several quarters, others years, if at all. This has been quite a stretch for markets where next month is considered “long-term.” There …Read More

OPEC’s lunacy behind market’s volatility

Market volatility was present throughout January with no calming so far in February. We saw a 565-point intraday slide on the Dow on Jan. 20; then a few days later, the market closed up nearly 400 points! As February began, the Dow gave back most of that 400-point gain only to regain nearly half of it last Wednesday after another rollercoaster ride (376 intraday points). On Friday, the jobs report …Read More

Reconciling Contradictory Data

Originally published in RGJ’s Business Section, Sunday, 4/5/15 The markets are still concerned about a weakening U.S. economy, as data from the industrial portion of the economy continues to show weakness, even in March. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 51.5 in March, its lowest level in more than 2 years; ADP indicated that private sector job creation fell to 189,000 in March from 214,000 in February with most of the …Read More

How the economy really works

The latest economic controversy is something called corporate “inversions.” They occur when a U.S. domiciled corporation buys or merges with a foreign entity and moves their official headquarters out of the U.S. The media has painted this as almost criminal and the Obama Administration as “unpatriotic.” Most who get their news from sound bites believe that those corporations who plan to or have already accomplished inversion pay no U.S. taxes. …Read More

If You Build It, They Won’t Come: Opinion

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.– Charles Darwin I am often asked: “When do you think the economy will return to normal?” My response: If by “normal” you mean what we had from the 1980s to 2008 — the “if you build it, they will come” economy — the answer is, not anytime in the …Read More

Existing Public Policy Fosters a Growing Income Gap

There is no doubt that the gap between the rich and the middle class and poor has widened in recent years. And the most recent studies confirm a continuation of that trend with capital gains playing a major role. What is ironic is that public policies — some long practiced, some new, — contribute significantly to the problem. Recognizing and fixing such policy issues, however, is easier said than done. …Read More