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The Risk of Recession is Rising; So is Market Risk

Recession: This is the hardest world for any business economist to pen, especially when the equity market is on a tear.  Nevertheless, that is the reality of a slow growth, deflationary world where not much negative must happen to push the 1% growth economy into negative territory.  Post-election, markets initially rose on the hopes of economic stimulus from the Trump administration.  Then, they flattened as prospects for rapid policy changes …Read More

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining Each and every day there is a consistent drumbeat that the equity markets are in nosebleed territory and that the end of the six-year bull market is close. Don’t believe it! Almost all of the underlying indexes, anecdotal evidence, and most of the headline data indicate that the economy is just about to achieve “escape velocity,” where economic growth becomes self-sustaining. Such “escape velocity” has …Read More

The Fed returns to the shadows

At the end of August, the Standard & Poor’s 500 reached another new milestone, closing above 2,000 for the first time ever. And even the NASDAQ, at nearly 4,600, is now within striking distance of 5,000, a mark it set almost 15 years ago. The fact that the stock market continues to rise in the face of the Fed’s continued ultra-accommodative monetary policy is no longer a surprise. As many …Read More

If You Build It, They Won’t Come: Opinion

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.– Charles Darwin I am often asked: “When do you think the economy will return to normal?” My response: If by “normal” you mean what we had from the 1980s to 2008 — the “if you build it, they will come” economy — the answer is, not anytime in the …Read More