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Awash in Liquidity, Part 2: The Long-Term Consequences of Falling Interest Rates

First published at Minyanville.com http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/Awash-in-Liquidity-Part-2-The/5/28/2014/id/55108 There are going to be unintended effects that we can’t yet discern, but there are some issues that we already know about. In the first installment of this two-part series (Awash in Liquidity, Part I: Why Interest Rates Are Falling), I discussed how the world has come to be knee-deep in liquidity.  As a consequence, interest rates, as seen through US 10-year Treasury yields, have …Read More

If You Build It, They Won’t Come: Opinion

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.– Charles Darwin I am often asked: “When do you think the economy will return to normal?” My response: If by “normal” you mean what we had from the 1980s to 2008 — the “if you build it, they will come” economy — the answer is, not anytime in the …Read More

8 U.S. business predictions for 2014

The holiday season is the traditional time of year to prognosticate about the upcoming year. But, before I start, I want to make a distinction between short-term and long-term forecasts. Long-term trends are just that, and they unfold slowly. And, while I have great concerns about the long-term consequences of inflation, the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, the bloated Fed balance sheet and resulting excess bank reserves, and …Read More

Nevada must join ranks of business-savvy states

I was quite surprised when I got up last Tuesday to find that all of my utilities were working, including TV; my trash had been picked up; and, when I drove to work, the traffic lights were operating, the schools were open and I even spotted a couple of local police patrol cars. It appeared to be a normal Tuesday morning.Well, I wasn’t really surprised. But I would have been …Read More