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Helicopter Money

The Economy: On a Sugar High With 28 Million Unemployed

  Last week, interest rates moved slightly lower, with the 10-year T-Note falling about 7 basis points from 0.71% to 0.64%, a retracement of 37% toward the 0.51% August 4 low.  Like its brethren, the 30-year T-Bond fell 10 basis points from 1.45% to 1.35%, a 38% retracement to the 1.19% low (also August 4).  Some of the up-move had to do with the “Inflation Scare” discussed in last week’s …Read More

On Reopening: We’ve Just Seen The Iceberg’s Tip

New Data Should Accelerate Re-Opening When the pandemic started, the only data available was the number of new cases, existing cases, and deaths. The original models, perhaps based on prior pandemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918, forecast significant deaths, up to as many as 2 million in the U.S., and, of course, mass infections. Based on that, governments all over the world shut-down their economies. New mortality data is now available …Read More

Why Helicopter Money and Unconventional Monetary Policies Won’t Help the Economy

The equity markets continue to flirt with record highs while the yields on fixed income instruments are at or near all-time historic lows.  Generally, those two market movements are not compatible.  Everyone feels a high level of anxiety about the economic future.  Ben Bernanke visited the Bank of Japan in early July to help them set up a new experimental monetary policy dubbed “helicopter money.”  And we are living in …Read More