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industrial economy

On a Recession Watch

For the first time since the industrial revolution, the U.S. faces two significant growth issues: 1) a declining labor force; and 2) a job skills mismatch.  The declining labor force is demographic in nature and is occurring in every industrial economy; likely a function of the long-term success of capitalism.   The skills mismatch is a function of technological change that is so rapid that the skills of the existing labor …Read More

The Trump Rally

For the third time in six months, markets reacted opposite to expectations.  First, it was Brexit.  Markets swooned after the unexpected vote.  That lasted for two days before markets shook off the surprise and headed higher.  Last month, when Trump won, the swoon lasted a whole 9 hours, and the tantrum ended just prior to the opening of U.S. markets.  On Sunday, December 4th, when Italy voted “no” on PM …Read More

Investors, prepare for slower growth

From an investor’s standpoint, this has surely been a summer of discontent.  All markets appear to be too high, there is no yield to be found, and there appears to be no place to hide, at least inside current investment standards as set forth by Wall Street.  While the conventional wisdom looks at cash as “trash” because it generates no return, in today’s world where there is more deflation than …Read More

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Q3/2016

The “Brexit” caused market swoon on Wall Street turned out to be a nasty 5.3% two day dive (S&P 500) that was all but reversed in the next 4 trading sessions.  The reason was clear early on – despite forecasts of immediate worldwide economic doom and gloom, the non-binding referendum was mostly a political statement about bureaucratic government, and the referendum split along demographic lines (older vs. younger, and rural …Read More

What a buying opportunity it was!

By the market action in October, it now appears certain that the nasty 12% market correction in August and September was just that, a “correction.” And if you ignored all the doomsayers, who finally had a down market after 4+ years, the correction proved to be a buying opportunity. Indeed, we can pretty well conclude what I said in the August and September columns that: •China’s slowdown isn’t going to …Read More

For Clients & Friends

Dear clients and friends, The long overdue market correction has finally arrived. And due to automated trading, volatility is extreme. Furthermore, it is likely that the volatility will last for a while. Here are the economic issues the market is fretting over: Weakness in China – their currency devaluation is a clear sign that Chinese officials are worried about economic growth. That growth, by the way, is likely substantially lower …Read More