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Economic Review – Q1/16

At quarter’s end, the equity market had recovered all that it had lost between 12/31 and 2/11, plus about 1%.  Apparently, this was the swiftest recovery in any quarter since 1933.  While we were fairly certain that the downdraft was just a much needed correction, like you, we don’t care too much for the uncertainty that such markets bring, especially when the business media was practically cheerleading for a recession.  …Read More

The logic behind Wall Street’s recession fears

To the logical investor, and to most economists, Wall Street’s fear of a U.S. recession appears irrational. Is it? While there is no current evidence that the U.S. has entered a recession, or even that one is approaching, there have been two instances in modern history where the financial markets have precipitated a recession; 1929 and 2001. The negative feedback loop Summed up, the logic is that a bear market …Read More