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Hope is Not a Good Investment Strategy

According to the Bespoke Investment Group, every year, Wall Street analysts declare that the stock market will rise, and since 2000, the annual average forecast has been for a 9.5% gain.  The reality is that the market has only risen at a 3.9% rate over this time frame.  The 2008 forecast was for a market increase of 11%; the reality was -38%.  To say that Wall Street promotes the stock …Read More

Will Markets React as the Trump Agenda Becomes Long-Term?

The failure to get health care reform through the House of Representatives highlights the difficulty that this President is having in bringing his legislative agenda to reality; one would think that markets would have a significant negative reaction – but, that has not been the case. For sure, the Trump rally, itself, has stalled (except in the tech sector), as the closing level of the S&P 500 on Thursday, March …Read More

An Overview of Brexit

The Reaction of the European Bourses On June 14th, the FTSE closed at 5923.50.  On June 15th, the world’s major bourses began their run-up in anticipation that “remain” would win in the U.K. referendum.  The FTSE rose 7% from its June 14th level until June 23rd (to 6338.10), the day of the referendum.  The day after the referendum, when the “shock” of “exit” was highest, the FTSE fell 3.1% to …Read More

Recognition shock

The wave of anti-establishment, anti-globalization sentiment, evident in the U.S. primary election cycle, manifest itself bigtime in the U.K. with its vote on Thursday, June 23rd, to exit the European Union (E.U.).  Wall Street hates uncertainty; that is why it loves the status quo.  In the days leading up to this historic British decision, the markets were so confident that the vote would be to “remain” in the E.U. that …Read More

Earnings Preview: What to Expect for Facebook Stock

If social media has an alternate universe, it could well be virtual reality. And Facebook (ticker: FB) hopes to conquer its own corner of the galaxy when its company Oculus releases the Rift headset in the first quarter of the year. (Some gaming websites report the date as March 28, though Oculus has kept launch details quiet.) Too bad the Rift isn’t out now, and that it can’t look ahead …Read More

This Market Needs Some Xanax

Xanax is a medication used to treat anxiety and panic disorders.  Markets have been ugly since year’s end. On Wednesday, volatility was high, as the Dow Jones was down -565 points before rallying back to close down -249. Thursday’s action was a relief (+116), but markets are likely to be volatile near term.  Xanax sure would help. There are lots of worries: That economies, worldwide, are decelerating; That China will …Read More