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Trade wars

The Deer in the Headlights

The big event of August, the one that was going to move markets, was supposed to be Jay Powell’s remarks at the KC Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole.  Turns out, his speech was a non-event! The Powell Non-Event The media made it their purpose, prior to his speech, to spotlight the fact that the FOMC members, the Fed’s rate setting committee, are very divided on the appropriate policy, given …Read More

“Pause” Gave the Market Temporary Hope But Hope is not a Good Investment Strategy

The Dow Jones Average rose 618 points on November 28th as the market interpreted Fed Chair Powell’s speech as dovish and has assumed that the Fed will “pause” in its stated rate hiking plan. Then, on December 3rd, the Dow rose another 288 points, interpreting the 90 day “cease fire trade pause” between the U.S. and China as significant progress. The following day, the Dow plunged nearly 800 points on …Read More

Trade Wars Will Slow Growth

Q3 started out with several very positive days in the equity markets, due to the seeming “Goldilocks” economy (solid growth, low inflation, best employment market in 50 years), likely in anticipation of continued 20%+ earnings reports (the tailwind of tax reduction), and, at least in the early days of July, from a lack of any significant moves on the tariff and trade front. That all ended on July 11th when …Read More