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Latest UVA News Posts

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining Each and every day there is a consistent drumbeat that the equity markets are in nosebleed territory and that the end of the six-year bull market is close. Don’t believe it! Almost all of the underlying indexes, anecdotal evidence, and most of the headline data indicate that the economy is just about to achieve “escape velocity,” where economic growth becomes self-sustaining. Such “escape velocity” has …Read More

June’s economic backdrop

June’s economic backdrop From the emerging data, it would appear that my analysis of the economy’s underlying strength, as published in this column, was spot on. The First Quarter •I remarked several times over the past few months that the seasonal adjustment process (SA) used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is often unreliable and sometimes misleading. Now, after what appears to be the second year in a row of …Read More

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Today’s world thrives on instant gratification, tweets and sound bites. In-depth analysis rarely makes headlines, and by the time the in-depth analysis is available, the media have moved on to the next tweet sensation. And so, the business community was left with only a superficial reading of April’s retail sales numbers, possibly resulting in erroneous conclusions about the economy’s direction. Here are some of the instant headlines from the May …Read More

Are equity prices too high?

It really must be confusing for the ordinary investor as the media continues to emphasize negative economic news. The current story line continues to be a sluggish economy, where GDP growth was 0.2 percent in the first quarter and likely to be revised to negative growth, while even Europe, long stuck with growth-killing socialism, grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate over the same time period. Are U.S. equity prices …Read More

Economy: the Elusive “Escape Velocity”

The strong labor market and recent emerging data indicate that the first quarter’s poor economic performance was due to severe winter weather and a 2 month long west coast port strike that disrupted many manufacturing production schedules. Yet, despite such data, the financial media and many bloggers continue to fixate on the inability of the economy to shake off what appears to be “stall” speed, i.e., very slow economic growth, …Read More