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Latest UVA News Posts

For Clients & Friends

Dear clients and friends, The long overdue market correction has finally arrived. And due to automated trading, volatility is extreme. Furthermore, it is likely that the volatility will last for a while. Here are the economic issues the market is fretting over: Weakness in China – their currency devaluation is a clear sign that Chinese officials are worried about economic growth. That growth, by the way, is likely substantially lower …Read More

The U.S. is Losing the Currency War

Over the past year, the U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 18%, and in the week of August 10th, China surprised the markets by allowing its currency to depreciate nearly 3% against the dollar, thoroughly roiling the equity markets. The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) had typically pegged the value of the Chinese currency (RMB) to the dollar. In August, 2014, it took 6.15 RMB to purchase $1; and on …Read More

With GDP at 2.3 percent and gold prices low, should you buy?

The data on the economy has been mixed of late, and the price of gold has tanked again. In what follows, I try to analyze these trends. The U.S. Economy U.S. GDP growth of 2.3 percent in the second quarter appears, at first glance, disappointing. But given the very significant headwinds in the manufacturing sector (recession in the oil and gas industries), the strong dollar, and falling worldwide demand which …Read More

Putting the Economic Issues in Perspective

Clients have asked whether they should continue to be bullish on the U.S. economy and equities when the media continues to emphasize a plethora of troubling issues including a flat lining manufacturing sector, an energy sector that is still contracting, and a new host of government taxes and regulations (from federal, state, and local authorities) that make it difficult for small businesses to remain viable. The purpose here is to …Read More

Apparently, the Rest of the World Does Matter

Wow! What a week – talk about volatility! On Sunday, the “Xoi” (No) vote from the Greek referendum apparently hardened the Greek government’s negotiating line; There was an intensification of the meltdown on the Shanghai equity market Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday; There was a 3 hour trading halt at the NYSE on Wednesday; Then there was a rebound of more than 10% on the Shanghai on Thursday and Friday; And …Read More

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining Each and every day there is a consistent drumbeat that the equity markets are in nosebleed territory and that the end of the six-year bull market is close. Don’t believe it! Almost all of the underlying indexes, anecdotal evidence, and most of the headline data indicate that the economy is just about to achieve “escape velocity,” where economic growth becomes self-sustaining. Such “escape velocity” has …Read More