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Latest UVA News Posts

Economy: the Elusive “Escape Velocity”

The strong labor market and recent emerging data indicate that the first quarter’s poor economic performance was due to severe winter weather and a 2 month long west coast port strike that disrupted many manufacturing production schedules. Yet, despite such data, the financial media and many bloggers continue to fixate on the inability of the economy to shake off what appears to be “stall” speed, i.e., very slow economic growth, …Read More

Reconciling Contradictory Data

Originally published in RGJ’s Business Section, Sunday, 4/5/15 The markets are still concerned about a weakening U.S. economy, as data from the industrial portion of the economy continues to show weakness, even in March. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 51.5 in March, its lowest level in more than 2 years; ADP indicated that private sector job creation fell to 189,000 in March from 214,000 in February with most of the …Read More

Three Uncertainties Are Driving the Markets

The financial markets have been focused on three uncertainties: the strong and rising value of the dollar vis a vis other currencies, weakening U.S. economic indicators, and the timing and magnitude of Fed policy actions.  All this with a background of the ongoing Greek tragedy and continued political strife and terrorism worries. Volatility has resulted.  To show the market’s uncertainty, in the month of March, of the 19 trading days …Read More

Uncertainties driving the markets

Originally published on RGJ’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/20/uncertainties-driving-markets/25113763/ The financial markets have been focused on three uncertainties: the strong and rising value of the dollar vis a vis other currencies, weakening U.S. economic indicators, and the timing and magnitude of Fed policy actions. All this with a background of the ongoing Greek tragedy and continued political strife and terrorism worries. Volatility has resulted. The Strong Dollar The rising value of the dollar …Read More

‘Death puts’ — aka, the ‘survivor’s option’

Originally published on the Tahoe Daily Tribune’s website, http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/opinion/15501217-113/tahoe-truckee-market-beat-death-puts-aka-the-survivors-option Record-low interest rates over the last few years have made it a difficult time for fixed income investors. In a normal interest rate environment, a conservative income investor with $1 million to invest could expect to receive an income of $45,000 to $50,000 per year by investing in benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds. Today, the 10-year Treasury is yielding about 2 …Read More

Rising wages: Is Wal-Mart a precursor?

Originally published on Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/06/rising-wages-wal-mart-precursor/24537471/ For the past 18 months, the labor markets have been telling us to be bullish on the U.S. economy as the healing in that market precipitated economic strength. Those who could read those signals had a significant time advantage in the markets, as those signs emerged months ahead of the now-official view of the Fed that the labor markets are healing. In …Read More