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Latest UVA News Posts

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Q3/2016

The “Brexit” caused market swoon on Wall Street turned out to be a nasty 5.3% two day dive (S&P 500) that was all but reversed in the next 4 trading sessions.  The reason was clear early on – despite forecasts of immediate worldwide economic doom and gloom, the non-binding referendum was mostly a political statement about bureaucratic government, and the referendum split along demographic lines (older vs. younger, and rural …Read More

An Overview of Brexit

The Reaction of the European Bourses On June 14th, the FTSE closed at 5923.50.  On June 15th, the world’s major bourses began their run-up in anticipation that “remain” would win in the U.K. referendum.  The FTSE rose 7% from its June 14th level until June 23rd (to 6338.10), the day of the referendum.  The day after the referendum, when the “shock” of “exit” was highest, the FTSE fell 3.1% to …Read More

Recognition shock

The wave of anti-establishment, anti-globalization sentiment, evident in the U.S. primary election cycle, manifest itself bigtime in the U.K. with its vote on Thursday, June 23rd, to exit the European Union (E.U.).  Wall Street hates uncertainty; that is why it loves the status quo.  In the days leading up to this historic British decision, the markets were so confident that the vote would be to “remain” in the E.U. that …Read More

Dealing with the ‘New Normal’

In ’09 and ’10, when Mohammed El-Erian and Bill Gross both worked at PIMCO, they put forth a concept they called “the New Normal.” It postulated that the economy would grow at a much slower rate than it had in the past, and therefore market returns – both equity and fixed income – would be much lower than what we had experienced in the post-WWII era. Nice theory, many thought; …Read More

An approaching financial crisis — reality or myth?

The data seen so far in Q2 are somewhat better than Q1, and Q1’s real GDP growth has been upgraded from a miserable 0.5 percent to a miserly 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy remains in first gear, mainly due to the oil patch and continued sluggish manufacturing activity. With such poor results from a record-breaking level of deficit spending for the last decade, it isn’t any wonder that the purveyors …Read More

Anti-growth policies hurt investors

The stall-out in the U.S. economy and in most major world economies has baffled policymakers. No matter what they try in today’s economic environment, it hasn’t worked for more than a short period of time. Quantitative easing appeared to work when first tried during the Great Recession, but now, as Japan and Europe have found, there appears to be significant diminishing returns with these unconventional tools. Europe, for example, will …Read More