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Latest UVA News Posts

Putting the Economic Issues in Perspective

Clients have asked whether they should continue to be bullish on the U.S. economy and equities when the media continues to emphasize a plethora of troubling issues including a flat lining manufacturing sector, an energy sector that is still contracting, and a new host of government taxes and regulations (from federal, state, and local authorities) that make it difficult for small businesses to remain viable. The purpose here is to …Read More

Apparently, the Rest of the World Does Matter

Wow! What a week – talk about volatility! On Sunday, the “Xoi” (No) vote from the Greek referendum apparently hardened the Greek government’s negotiating line; There was an intensification of the meltdown on the Shanghai equity market Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday; There was a 3 hour trading halt at the NYSE on Wednesday; Then there was a rebound of more than 10% on the Shanghai on Thursday and Friday; And …Read More

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining

Economic recovery close to self-sustaining Each and every day there is a consistent drumbeat that the equity markets are in nosebleed territory and that the end of the six-year bull market is close. Don’t believe it! Almost all of the underlying indexes, anecdotal evidence, and most of the headline data indicate that the economy is just about to achieve “escape velocity,” where economic growth becomes self-sustaining. Such “escape velocity” has …Read More

June’s economic backdrop

June’s economic backdrop From the emerging data, it would appear that my analysis of the economy’s underlying strength, as published in this column, was spot on. The First Quarter •I remarked several times over the past few months that the seasonal adjustment process (SA) used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is often unreliable and sometimes misleading. Now, after what appears to be the second year in a row of …Read More

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Today’s world thrives on instant gratification, tweets and sound bites. In-depth analysis rarely makes headlines, and by the time the in-depth analysis is available, the media have moved on to the next tweet sensation. And so, the business community was left with only a superficial reading of April’s retail sales numbers, possibly resulting in erroneous conclusions about the economy’s direction. Here are some of the instant headlines from the May …Read More

Are equity prices too high?

It really must be confusing for the ordinary investor as the media continues to emphasize negative economic news. The current story line continues to be a sluggish economy, where GDP growth was 0.2 percent in the first quarter and likely to be revised to negative growth, while even Europe, long stuck with growth-killing socialism, grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate over the same time period. Are U.S. equity prices …Read More