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Latest UVA News Posts

“V” vs. “u” and the Flawed Inflation Narrative

The equity markets finally took a breather last week (ended January 15th), with the S&P 500 falling a mere 1.5%; that’s down from its record high a week earlier.  Perhaps the really poor economic data played a role, but then again, equity markets like such poor data because it means more stimulus (Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan), and markets know that much of the stimulus always finds its way into the …Read More

We Don’t Live in “Normal” Times

The equity markets are in one of those rare moods where they continue to rise no matter the news, even when there are riots in the nation’s capitol complex, and when non-farm payrolls fall -140K.  Would you say this is “normal?” Regarding inflation expectations, interest rates rose rapidly along the Treasury yield curve with the 10-year T-Note yield rising from 0.93% (93basis points) from its close on January 4th to …Read More

Using 2020 Hindsight: The Emerging “New Normal” Picture

Using 2020 Hindsight: The Emerging “New Normal” Picture The year finally ended, and, as has been typical, the latest data continued to be downbeat. Despite the weak economic data, the equity market ended the year at all-time highs.  The S&P 500, at 3,576 was up 10.5% for the year after falling 34% in the February/March period, quite the reversal. The current market mantra is that, with the vaccines now in …Read More

The Economy Slows; The Real “New Normal”

The virus’ resurgence has caused more business disruptions, raising the specter of a renewed economic slowdown.  Spending and income numbers have mainly been negative in Q4, and the much hoped for stimulus relief package is now stuck on the president’s desk. The Economy “Drop in Spending, Higher Claims Cloud Outlook for Growth,” WSJ, 12/24/20, A1. Restaurants: -3.7% November (M/M); -0.6% October Hotels/Motels: -8.7% November (M/M); -4.4% October Movie Theaters: -17.2% …Read More

Policy Rx for Recession Aggravates Income Inequality

T’was the week before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was spending, not even your spouse; the stockings were hung by the chimney with flairs, in hopes that the Congress would supplement CARES. And so, it appears that the economy continues to deteriorate as the Congress attempts to put together another stimulus without provisions for certain favored constituents of either party – much easier said than done.  …Read More

Inflation Expectations Rise Even as the Economy Cools

It has now become clear, and mainstream, that the economy weakened significantly in November, and that such weakness will carry forward to year’s end, at a minimum.  The weakness occurred primarily in the services sector as the virus’ resurgence caused some governors to mandate new or additional service business restrictions. As a result, jobless claims have spiked, travel and hotel occupancy fell to even lower levels, and restaurant and other …Read More