Equity markets have yet to recognize the fragility and softness of the underlying economy, although they do appear to be somewhat sensitive to geopolitical issues (North Korea). The incoming data continue to confirm: that the consumer has little spending capacity remaining; that inflation’s roar is nowhere to be found (except, perhaps, in hot dogs); that the detail underlying the headline employment number (209,000) show labor market deterioration; that the equity …Read More
Tag Archives: bond market
Hope is Not a Good Investment Strategy
According to the Bespoke Investment Group, every year, Wall Street analysts declare that the stock market will rise, and since 2000, the annual average forecast has been for a 9.5% gain. The reality is that the market has only risen at a 3.9% rate over this time frame. The 2008 forecast was for a market increase of 11%; the reality was -38%. To say that Wall Street promotes the stock …Read More
June’s economic backdrop
June’s economic backdrop From the emerging data, it would appear that my analysis of the economy’s underlying strength, as published in this column, was spot on. The First Quarter •I remarked several times over the past few months that the seasonal adjustment process (SA) used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is often unreliable and sometimes misleading. Now, after what appears to be the second year in a row of …Read More
