I hear it every day on the business channels or see it in the business media print: “The economy has to get back to normal.” But normal means different things to different constituencies. Wall Street and equity investors certainly don’t want to see the stock market behave normally, if indeed, normal means that PE ratios mean revert and that we have periodic 10%-20% corrections. Everyone, especially the President, would like …Read More
Tag Archives: china
“Normal,” It’s Not What You Think!
Most readers remember the pre-recession days of 4% GDP growth, interest rates at levels where savers had return choices worth pursuing (e.g., the 10 year T-Note at 4%), and workers could count on annual real wage growth. Today, many refer to this as “normal,” and there is a desire, if not a movement, to return the economy back to such a state. You can see this in the political arena. …Read More
Will Markets React as the Trump Agenda Becomes Long-Term?
The failure to get health care reform through the House of Representatives highlights the difficulty that this President is having in bringing his legislative agenda to reality; one would think that markets would have a significant negative reaction – but, that has not been the case. For sure, the Trump rally, itself, has stalled (except in the tech sector), as the closing level of the S&P 500 on Thursday, March …Read More
Will the Fed Cause Another Recession?
The Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points (a quarter of a percentage point) to 1.0%. This is the anchor rate on the yield curve, and, most other rates respond to it, with shorter rates today responding more than longer rates. It appears from their communications that they intend to hike rates several more times over the next 12-18 months. While I don’t see a recession over …Read More
Is Optimism a Key Ingredient in Economic Growth?
Most of the sentiment measuring surveys posted dramatically higher results after the election on optimism over what a Trump Administration might do for the economy. But, there is a big difference between hope and reality. Beginning in mid-December, the U.S. equity markets shifted into neutral, and have slowly drifted lower, perhaps waiting for the political changeover. The Fed is now in tightening mode. In my experience, the Fed tightens and …Read More
2017 forecasts when Trump honeymoon ends
In this time of market exuberance and significant increases in almost every sentiment index, it is time to recognize that when reality returns, markets will correct. This coming year is going to begin with more uncertainty than is normally the case: The Trump fiscal agenda is huge, but so are the debt levels; and the Fed has begun a tightening cycle in earnest, with the economy still in first gear. Of …Read More
