The markets waited all week for Fed Chair Powell to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Due to the Delta-variant, like many other business meetings, this one was held virtually. There was growing market concern that Powell would turn somewhat more hawkish, especially since some Regional Fed Presidents appear to have done so in recent speeches and media appearances. As a result, interest rates, as measured …Read More
Tag Archives: china
The Shape Of Things To Come: ‘V’ Or ‘L’ Recovery
What do -38%, -34%, -30%, and -25% have in common? If you guessed that these are the Q2 real GDP forecasts from the major financial houses (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan), you would be correct. Incredible as it may seem, we are likely headed for a drop in Q2 real GDP in that magnitude, and the just passed Q1 quarter looks to be somewhere near high negative single digits. …Read More
The Shape Of Things To Come: ‘V’ Or ‘L’ Recovery
What do -38%, -34%, -30%, and -25% have in common? If you guessed that these are the Q2 real GDP forecasts from the major financial houses (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan), you would be correct. Incredible as it may seem, we are likely headed for a drop in Q2 real GDP in that magnitude, and the just passed Q1 quarter looks to be somewhere near high negative single digits. …Read More
The “Avoidance” Reaction
Preamble I received an email from my travel agent last Monday (March 2) informing me that, because Italy had been raised to a Travel Level 3 by the CDC (strongly advised not to travel there), our vacation to Italy (March 12-22) had to be postponed, else we risked being quarantined upon our return. In addition, the previous Friday, two corporate meetings in my immediate schedule for the week in the …Read More
Corona, Corona, Corona Bonds Really Do Have More Fun!
The equity market finally showed some sensitivity to the effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) last week with the S&P 500 falling 1.25% from its record high close on Valentine’s day for the holiday shortened week. The leading issue which dominated every news cycle (except for the Democratic debate for a few hours) was Covid-19 and the economic uncertainties surrounding it. Markets rose on news or speculation that infection cases were …Read More
