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Despite Wall Street Hype, Inflation is Not Imminent

Retail sales rose a record 5.3% M/M in January after three months in a row of decline.  No doubt the $600 checks from the late December “helicopter” money drop played a large role.  The Atlanta Fed now says that their GDP model pegs the current quarter’s growth at +9.5% (Annual Rate (AR)).  In addition, Industrial Production was up nearly 1% (0.9%) in January.  So, why worry?  Infections and hospitalizations are …Read More

The Inflation Scare

Interest rates backed up last week.  The 30-year T-Bond, which was 1.19% on August 4, closed at 1.44% on Friday (August 14).  The 10-year T-Note closed at 0.71%.  It was 0.52% on August 4.  The CPI showed up with a +0.6% M/M rise (7.4% annual rate) for July.  That pushed the Y/Y rate to +1.0% from +0.6% in June.  Clothing prices rose +1.1% M/M in July.  They had risen +1.7% …Read More