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Tag Archives: ECB

The Goldilocks Labor Report: “Just Right!”

It isn’t ever a good sign when markets become manic. August was quite volatile with five days out of 22 (23%) where the S&P 500 intra-day market swings exceeded 2%, and three days when the market closed down more than -2.5% from the prior day’s close. (We haven’t seen such price volatility since 2011!) While, so far, September has been less volatile, the market is still susceptible to tweets. For example, news about the …Read More

The Deer in the Headlights

The big event of August, the one that was going to move markets, was supposed to be Jay Powell’s remarks at the KC Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole.  Turns out, his speech was a non-event! The Powell Non-Event The media made it their purpose, prior to his speech, to spotlight the fact that the FOMC members, the Fed’s rate setting committee, are very divided on the appropriate policy, given …Read More

What Investors Believe: Central Banks Have Their Backs

In a world of fragile economic growth where the odds of recession have been on the rise, investors are now convinced that central banks (CBs), led by the Fed, have their backs, as they see the CBs as “buyers of last resort.” Note that the Fed, whose legislative mandates are low unemployment and stable prices, has morphed into the role of equity market savior beginning in the Greenspan era and rolling …Read More

Where’s The Recession, You Ask? Reprise

The narrative is that the “soft patch”, now so evident in U.S. data, is temporary, related to factors like weather, the government shut-down, and/or trade/tariffs. The Atlanta Fed, where GDP forecasts always seem to come out on the high side, put Q1’s real GDP growth at just +0.3%. And, the N.Y. Fed’s model says +0.9%. In any case, even the most ardent bulls have at least recognized that current data …Read More

Don’t be Fooled: Complacency is a Danger to Investors

The U.S. economy itself appears to be doing well, but we see many end of cycle signs, including less than 4% unemployment, rising interest rates, emerging consumer inflation, a strained housing market, slowing growth worldwide, and huge instability now developing in the emerging market space including Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and Thailand. However, what scares us the most is the level of investor complacency. Because of the Fed’s and other …Read More

The Italian Job Shouldn’t Have Been Such a Shock

The good news is that it looks like manufacturing got a bit stronger entering Q2, and consumer spending was slightly better, too. So, Q2’s U.S. GDP may actually be a tad stronger than Q1’s. But, the good news stops there, as the rest of the world, especially Europe, appears to have hit a wall, a barrier that has displayed itself for the last couple of months, but, till now, was …Read More