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Tag Archives: economic data

Good News! The Re-Opening

The Unemployment Picture The equity markets continued their uptrend the week ended May 30th with the S&P 500 gaining 3.0% for the week (and 4.5% for the month). Similarly, the DJIA gained 3.8% this past week and 4.3% for the month. Markets moved higher on vaccine speculation, and on less negative sequential data as all 50 states were in full or partial re-opening mode. The markets seem to believe that the Recovery will be …Read More

Fallout From Fed Dovishness

The rate setting committee of the Fed met on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 19 and 20. What the Market Saw and Heard From their formal statement and press conference, the equity market saw and heard only what it wanted, at least at first, and equity markets rose on Thursday, March 21st (Dow Jones +217): No rate hikes in 2019, and possibly only one in 2020 (and that one would occur because …Read More

Hope is Not a Good Investment Strategy

According to the Bespoke Investment Group, every year, Wall Street analysts declare that the stock market will rise, and since 2000, the annual average forecast has been for a 9.5% gain.  The reality is that the market has only risen at a 3.9% rate over this time frame.  The 2008 forecast was for a market increase of 11%; the reality was -38%.  To say that Wall Street promotes the stock …Read More

The Specter of Rising Rates

Suddenly, out of the blue, August’s data came in well below expectations; the economy now appears to be sputtering as we end the third quarter.  Yet the Fed has put the markets on notice that it intends to soon raise interest rates, or at least that is what the market thinks given the hawkish speeches from some Fed officials.  Raising rates into a weakening economy is ordinarily unthinkable.  As a …Read More

Three Uncertainties Are Driving the Markets

The financial markets have been focused on three uncertainties: the strong and rising value of the dollar vis a vis other currencies, weakening U.S. economic indicators, and the timing and magnitude of Fed policy actions.  All this with a background of the ongoing Greek tragedy and continued political strife and terrorism worries. Volatility has resulted.  To show the market’s uncertainty, in the month of March, of the 19 trading days …Read More

Uncertainties driving the markets

Originally published on RGJ’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/20/uncertainties-driving-markets/25113763/ The financial markets have been focused on three uncertainties: the strong and rising value of the dollar vis a vis other currencies, weakening U.S. economic indicators, and the timing and magnitude of Fed policy actions. All this with a background of the ongoing Greek tragedy and continued political strife and terrorism worries. Volatility has resulted. The Strong Dollar The rising value of the dollar …Read More