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Tag Archives: economic growth

Where’s The Recession, You Ask? Reprise

The narrative is that the “soft patch”, now so evident in U.S. data, is temporary, related to factors like weather, the government shut-down, and/or trade/tariffs. The Atlanta Fed, where GDP forecasts always seem to come out on the high side, put Q1’s real GDP growth at just +0.3%. And, the N.Y. Fed’s model says +0.9%. In any case, even the most ardent bulls have at least recognized that current data …Read More

The Amazon (Tesla) Controversy 

Nevada had to give Tesla tax concessions in order to induce them to put their mega-factory west of Sparks off of I-80.  Concessions are a fact of life when it comes to attracting mega-businesses to a community.  I do remember that then Governor Sandoval was criticized by some for “giving away too much” in the form of tax credits to Tesla.    I also remember asking a question in this column that went something like this: …Read More

Caution: Markets Are Forward Looking

This is the time of year to take stock of where the economy and markets stand and try to figure out what lies ahead. Markets are telling us something, and so is the underlying data. In what follows I will try to parse the signals the markets are sending, look at the data and the trends, and give you my view of what 2019 holds for investors. What the Markets …Read More

How Will Markets React to Growth Deceleration?

Economic fundamentals were ignored as if they were merely background noise as markets attempted once more in early August to breach their record high levels put in late last January. The common theme in the business media is that, due to great corporate earnings (24%+ in Q2), the equity markets are cheap. Never mind that a good part of that earnings growth was due to one-time tax reduction (in fact, …Read More

The Italian Job Shouldn’t Have Been Such a Shock

The good news is that it looks like manufacturing got a bit stronger entering Q2, and consumer spending was slightly better, too. So, Q2’s U.S. GDP may actually be a tad stronger than Q1’s. But, the good news stops there, as the rest of the world, especially Europe, appears to have hit a wall, a barrier that has displayed itself for the last couple of months, but, till now, was …Read More

Before Political Correctness, We Called This “Stagflation”

“Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” (George Santayana 1863-1952). This time, indeed, could be different. It certainly is in the realm of possibility. But, the odds are against it. One doesn’t get up on a particular morning and find an entry in the calendar on our smartphone, like “Cinco de Mayo” or “Mother’s Day,” that says “Start Day: National Recession.” In fact, the National Bureau …Read More