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No “Boom,” No Systemic Inflation Instead, a Return to “Normal”

In many parts of the country, no more masks!  Businesses reopening.  And, it sure does look like the impact of the latest stimulus checks (helicopter money) faded fast.  Despite the fact that the IRS continues to send out billions more in stimulus funds as they process 2020 tax returns, April Retail Sales fell -0.7% M/M.  Market expectations were for a rise of +1.0%.  In the retail sales world, this is …Read More

Rising wages: Is Wal-Mart a precursor?

Originally published on Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/06/rising-wages-wal-mart-precursor/24537471/ For the past 18 months, the labor markets have been telling us to be bullish on the U.S. economy as the healing in that market precipitated economic strength. Those who could read those signals had a significant time advantage in the markets, as those signs emerged months ahead of the now-official view of the Fed that the labor markets are healing. In …Read More