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Slower Growth, Inflation, the Fed, and End of Cycle Indicators

The U.S. economy itself appears to be doing well, but we see many end of cycle signs, including less than 4% unemployment, rising interest rates, emerging consumer inflation, a strained housing market, slowing growth worldwide, and huge instability now developing in the emerging market space. Economy Still Healthy The 0.8% rise in retail spending in May would seem to confirm that the U.S. economy is still expanding. We believe that …Read More

Post-election market drama

Last Tuesday evening, while dining with family and business associates, I had one eye on the elections and the other on the Dow Jones Futures Index, a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) in the non-trading hours. At one point, the futures were down 900 points, and I was drooling over the prospect of one of those quite rare buying opportunities produced by extreme market fear, irrationality and emotional distress. …Read More

Stock prices down – should you worry?

Originally published on Reno Gazette’s website http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/01/07/robert-barone-stock-prices-worry/21424791/ Intellectually, we all know that the equity markets can be volatile. It is a question of whether or not we can control our emotions, especially during market sell-offs. As of last Tuesday, the S&P had fallen for five straight sessions, something we haven’t seen for a year. Some pundits have proclaimed the end of the bull market. Take this with a grain of …Read More

Should investors worry QE3 has ended?

Originally published on RGJ.com’s website http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2014/11/16/robert-barone-investors-worry-qe-ended/19080941/ As October ended, the Fed announced an end to its controversial money printing policy, known as QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing). In QE3, the Fed purchased large quantities of U.S government securities. When the Fed purchases bonds, it creates new money in the form of bank reserves. For the past five years, the liquidity created by the Fed via this process has …Read More

Second quarter market review

The stock market is doing well this year, with both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial average at record levels. The Dow is pushing the 17,000 mark, and the S&P 500 is approaching 2,000. The NASDAQ has hit its highest mark since the year 2000 when it soared above 5000. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up about 7.14 percent, the Dow is up about 2.68 percent, …Read More