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2018 Preview and Assessment

Market valuations are high.  Current consumption is being financed by debt.  The housing data is mildly positive, but has been impacted by “rebuild” issues in the wake of natural disasters.  Corporate balance sheets are strong and laden with cash.  The world’s major economies are doing well and central banks are beginning to tighten policy led by the U.S.’s Fed.  Q4 real GDP growth looks to come in above 3% (third …Read More

The Risk of Recession is Rising; So is Market Risk

Recession: This is the hardest world for any business economist to pen, especially when the equity market is on a tear.  Nevertheless, that is the reality of a slow growth, deflationary world where not much negative must happen to push the 1% growth economy into negative territory.  Post-election, markets initially rose on the hopes of economic stimulus from the Trump administration.  Then, they flattened as prospects for rapid policy changes …Read More

It’s time again to talk about year-end tax selling

Originally published on Tahoe Daily Tribune http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/opinion/14263062-113/stock-tax-loss-sell As the year comes to a close, many investors may be thinking about rebalancing their portfolios or taking some profits or losses for tax purposes. If you have assets in a taxable account and are considering doing some buying or selling before the year ends, you should be aware of the potential tax consequences. If you have a profit in a stock and …Read More

The European Farce: Part 2 — How to Grow GDP

First published in Minyaville.com http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/The-European-Farce-Part-3-How/6/12/2014/id/55270 Without a growing GDP, the size of the deficit must shrink. The EU economies have been in or nearly in recession since the financial crisis in 2009. Greece has had to be bailed out several times.  Spain, too, and in the case of Cyprus, bank depositors bore much of the cost.  Italy and Portugal are lucky they avoided such bailouts.  But, that doesn’t mean they …Read More