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July 2021

Growth Will Slow Faster Than Expected

So Says the Current Data The systemic “inflation” and “labor shortage” myths persist in the financial media despite data to the contrary: Layoffs remain at recessionary levels; Wage growth is slowing, not accelerating; Bond yields are falling (where’s the inflation?); Housing and auto buying intentions are at 40 year lows. Inflation The one-year inflation expectation measure from the University of Michigan’s (U of M) Consumer Sentiment Survey did rise to …Read More

Why Interest Rates Are Falling

#*!? CRASH BAM @#$ Suddenly, markets (well, at least the bond market) now see falling interest rates in the short and intermediate term. The 10-Year U.S. T-Note fell from 1.47% on June 30 to close at 1.29% on Thursday July 7 (a big move in just four market sessions). Some of the rapid fall was due to short covering, so the slight give back on Friday (to 1.36%) wasn’t a surprise. For context, …Read More