GDP Beats – Sorry, No Soft Landing

 And OPEC+ Threatens Dollar Reserve Currency Status There were two major economic announcements last week. The Q4/22 GDP, released by the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) on Thursday (January 26th) was fawned over by the media. As we analyze below, some pundits falsely conclude that the +2.9% annualized growth rate was a sign that the […]

Markets to Fed: We’re Easing Whether You Like It or Not

Markets to Fed: We’re Easing Whether You Like It or Not

The financial markets now recognize that the Recession has arrived, and given those markets, it’s time for the Fed to stop tightening, if not beginning to lower rates. And because the Fed isn’t doing that, the markets are doing it for them. Not that the Fed will like it. The Fed, of course, does care; […]

Inflation Melts: The Evidence and Implications

The CPI for December was released on January 12th  (-0.1% M/M; +6.5% Y/Y). As it turns out, inflation was transitory after all – the time frame was 18 months. Supply chains are back to normal, and we see evidence of falling prices everywhere we look. The ISM survey of prices paid in the manufacturing sector […]

Labor Market/Economy Weaker than Headline Jobs Number Suggests

The big story of the first week of the new year was always going to be about the December jobs number. The Wall Street consensus was +203K for Non-Farm Payrolls, but the headline number, at +223K, handily beat that consensus. As a result, the “soft-landing” narrative is back on the table. The cherry on top […]

Outlook: 2023 Recession Likely Deeper and Longer

Last year, our year-end outlook blog was titled: Outlook: 2022 Growth Will Likely Disappoint. And disappoint, it did. Real GDP was negative in Q1 and Q2, and while Q3 showed a slight bounce, through Q3, the economy’s annualized real growth was less than +0.2% (that’s not a typo). Thus, last year’s outlook headline couldn’t have […]

Upon Further Review: That “Hot” Labor Market Is Really “Ice Cold”

There are two surveys put out every month: The Payroll or Establishment Survey, which is the one that gets the headlines, and the Household Survey. The Payroll Survey only surveys large and medium-sized businesses and counts the number of jobs. The Household Survey calls on households and only asks if people in the household are […]