Fed Transparency = Market Volatility

Markets have tanked since the worse-than-expected CPI reading, and the latest Fed hawkishness means no Powell “pivot,” no Fed “Put,” and no soft-landing. The table shows the market peak for the four major indexes, the level and percentage changes at the market’s trough at June’s end, the levels and percentage changes from the top of […]

Headline Data Say the Economy is Solid

Markets Know Better Market reaction and direction were always going to be about the employment numbers. At first glance, the +315K from the BLS’ Payroll Survey looked “solid,” and equities rose more than 1% in Friday’s early going. But, as further analysis occurred, markets ended the day significantly in negative territory. Apparently, the details below […]

As The Recession Asserts Itself, The Fed Takes a Hard Line

Sinks Stocks Equity markets were in a holding pattern all week waiting for some tidbits from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual Jackson Hole Symposium; especially waiting for Chair Powell’s Friday eloquence. Through Thursday, only the DJIA was off more than -1%, the Russell 2000 was almost flat, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down […]

Less Hawkish Fed – Don’t Celebrate!

Less Hawkish Fed – Don’t Celebrate! They’re Still Tightening into a Recession

 They’re Still Tightening into a Recession Most of the economic news this week was downbeat. Even the normally buoyant U.S. consumer appears to be retrenching as July’s Retail Sales were flat (0.0% M/M). Both equity and bond prices ended the week somewhat lower with the DJIA barely moving, but the tech heavy Nasdaq and small […]

Fed to Markets: “Curb Your Enthusiasm”

Despite Contrary Evidence, Fed Worries About CPI “Head Fake” Larry David is most famous for his role in the creation and production of the Seinfeld comedy series. After Seinfeld, David went on to create and star in another such series called Curb Your Enthusiasm. We thought the title of that series is exactly appropriate for […]

As the Once Hot Economy Smolders, a Hawkish Fed Gets New Ammo

The biggest surprise this past week was the unexpectedly large rise in the Payroll Employment Report, at +528K, more than double what appeared to be an optimistic consensus estimate of +250K. Most of the major equity indexes eked out a slightly positive week (see table), but neither the equity nor the fixed income markets liked […]