Why Helicopter Money and Unconventional Monetary Policies Won’t Help the Economy

The equity markets continue to flirt with record highs while the yields on fixed income instruments are at or near all-time historic lows.  Generally, those two market movements are not compatible.  Everyone feels a high level of anxiety about the economic future.  Ben Bernanke visited the Bank of Japan in early July to help them […]

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Q3/2016

The “Brexit” caused market swoon on Wall Street turned out to be a nasty 5.3% two day dive (S&P 500) that was all but reversed in the next 4 trading sessions.  The reason was clear early on – despite forecasts of immediate worldwide economic doom and gloom, the non-binding referendum was mostly a political statement […]

Investing in a slow-growth world

The first quarter provided quite a ride, featuring a rapid equity downdraft and chaos in the high-yield bond market accompanied by irrational fear about another implosion in the financial system and a resulting recession. All of this was brought on by the rapid fall in the price of oil, something that ordinarily would be a […]

The imagined recession disappears

And POOF, just like that, the imagined recession disappeared! The equity market rallied from its Feb. 11 low (S&P 500 1829.08, down 10.5 percent for the year) to 1893.40 (March 3) and rising as I write. Amazingly, the markets are now only down about 2.0 percent for the year. This bounce is a relief. And […]

The logic behind Wall Street’s recession fears

To the logical investor, and to most economists, Wall Street’s fear of a U.S. recession appears irrational. Is it? While there is no current evidence that the U.S. has entered a recession, or even that one is approaching, there have been two instances in modern history where the financial markets have precipitated a recession; 1929 […]

The Possibility of Negative Interest Rates on Your Deposits – Part I

The very concept of negative interest rates appears, at least at first blush, to be an oxymoron.   What rational entity would “loan” money and expect, under the contract, to get less back than loaned?  If you think “no one would,” think again!  In this two part narrative, I explain how this is possible, how it […]