If You Think the Banking Issues Are One and Done, Think Again!
The banking chaos appears to have calmed somewhat this week, with no new banks targeted for deposit outflows. The chart shows that as of the close of business on Thursday, March 30, small and mid-sized bank stock prices have stopped falling. Note: they haven’t risen, either. If anyone thinks this was one-and-done and it’s over […]
An Anatomy of the Banking Crisis
Last Friday (March 10), seemingly out of the blue, the financial world was rocked by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), then Signature Bank. This week we saw the contagion spread to Europe (Credit Suisse). The chart above shows the rapid plunge this past week in the S&P Regional Bank Index, which is not […]
Does 2.3 percent economic growth justify Dow 20,000?
A survey of 53 economists by Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast 2.3 percent economic growth for 2017, up from an estimated 1.6 percent in 2016. While better, 2.3 percent is still low by post-World War II standards. Consensus found that inflation would tick up to 2.4 percent, industrial production would begin to grow again (+1.6 […]
Why Helicopter Money and Unconventional Monetary Policies Won’t Help the Economy
The equity markets continue to flirt with record highs while the yields on fixed income instruments are at or near all-time historic lows. Generally, those two market movements are not compatible. Everyone feels a high level of anxiety about the economic future. Ben Bernanke visited the Bank of Japan in early July to help them […]
Assessing the market now that recession fears have disappeared
With recession fears now nowhere to be found, the market averages have raced their way back to a positive return for the year, a much-welcomed development considering where they were on Feb. 11. The bears have retired to their caves, and the negativism in the media has all but disappeared. The rising price of oil […]
The Possibility of Negative Interest Rates on Your Deposits – Part I
The very concept of negative interest rates appears, at least at first blush, to be an oxymoron. What rational entity would “loan” money and expect, under the contract, to get less back than loaned? If you think “no one would,” think again! In this two part narrative, I explain how this is possible, how it […]