Soft Employment, Inflation, Retail – Economic Implications
The employment reports last week (week ending September 1) had to dishearten the “soft-landing” crowd, as all the employment data showed emerging softness. It began with the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) on Tuesday (August 29). That survey showed job openings shrinking to 8.83 million in July. While that still appears to be […]
An Anatomy of the Banking Crisis
Last Friday (March 10), seemingly out of the blue, the financial world was rocked by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), then Signature Bank. This week we saw the contagion spread to Europe (Credit Suisse). The chart above shows the rapid plunge this past week in the S&P Regional Bank Index, which is not […]
Why Bonds Now Belong
Jim Cramer of CNBC has a saying: “There’s always a bull market somewhere. My job is to help you find it!” Rule #5 of Bob Farrell’s famous 10 Rules for Investing states: “The Public Buys the Most at the Top and the Least at the Bottom.” His Rule #9 says: “When All the Experts Agree, […]
A Softening Economy Will Be Buffeted by Stimulus Withdrawal
While the story of the week was the big “miss” in Nonfarm Payrolls, most of the incoming data continue to be much softer than the markets or financial media let on, as they continue to ignore the implications. The chart above shows U.S. vehicle sales beginning in 2015. Note the steady sales levels until the […]
Why Interest Rates Are Falling
#*!? CRASH BAM @#$ Suddenly, markets (well, at least the bond market) now see falling interest rates in the short and intermediate term. The 10-Year U.S. T-Note fell from 1.47% on June 30 to close at 1.29% on Thursday July 7 (a big move in just four market sessions). Some of the rapid fall was due to […]
“V” vs. “u” and the Flawed Inflation Narrative
The equity markets finally took a breather last week (ended January 15th), with the S&P 500 falling a mere 1.5%; that’s down from its record high a week earlier. Perhaps the really poor economic data played a role, but then again, equity markets like such poor data because it means more stimulus (Biden’s $1.9 trillion […]