We Don’t Live in “Normal” Times
The equity markets are in one of those rare moods where they continue to rise no matter the news, even when there are riots in the nation’s capitol complex, and when non-farm payrolls fall -140K. Would you say this is “normal?” Regarding inflation expectations, interest rates rose rapidly along the Treasury yield curve with the […]
Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality
The holidays are upon us, and we wish our clients and friends health, peace and happiness. Recent income, output, and employment data have turned sour. We’ll see what that does to holiday shopping. The financial markets, especially equities, have looked past the valley (abyss), and the vaccine news has enhanced the view that “normal,” or at […]
The Wile E. Coyote Market/Economy
The Wile E. Coyote stock market has now looked down. Nothing but air! The “good news” data from the U.S. economy is all stimulus related. Without stimulus, Q3 GDP would have fallen double digits. The economy has yet to face the oncoming eviction crisis in the rental markets and foreclosure tsunami in the commercial real estate market. […]
On Gazing Into The Abyss
The six large cap stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, and MSFT), which now compose 22% of the S&P 500 (vs. 10% five years ago) are, amazingly, up about 4% YTD as of Friday April 17. The S&P 500, itself, closed Friday, down only -11% YTD (and only -15% below its all-time peak), even in the […]
The Recession Has Arrived, & with a Vengeance
For some time, I have outlined the growing softness in the U.S. and world economies. Most of the recent data is pre-virus, and are generally meaningless. The numbers we will get for March will be awful, but the worst is yet to come. An example of March’s data is from the Philly Fed. The print […]
The “Avoidance” Reaction
Preamble I received an email from my travel agent last Monday (March 2) informing me that, because Italy had been raised to a Travel Level 3 by the CDC (strongly advised not to travel there), our vacation to Italy (March 12-22) had to be postponed, else we risked being quarantined upon our return. In addition, […]