8 U.S. business predictions for 2014
The holiday season is the traditional time of year to prognosticate about the upcoming year. But, before I start, I want to make a distinction between short-term and long-term forecasts. Long-term trends are just that, and they unfold slowly. And, while I have great concerns about the long-term consequences of inflation, the dollar’s role as […]
Part I: The Short-Term Outlook – A Strong and Accelerating Economy
Those who read our blogs know that over the past 6 months or so, we have turned positive on the underlying private sector of the U.S. economy. We have had comments from several readers about this apparent change of heart, some of them almost in disbelief. So, let us dispel any doubts. There is a […]
Part II: The Long-Term Outlook – Even a Strong Economy Doesn’t Change the Ultimate Outcome
If you’ve read Part I of this year end outlook, you know that it is our view that the underlying private sector is healthy and, except for the fact that the real rate of inflation is much faster than the ‘official’ rate, we could well have a short period of prosperity. Unfortunately, our long-term outlook […]
Investors May Ultimately Thank Washington for Gridlock
The markets have been fixated on the political standoff in Washington, D.C. Through Friday, October 4th, the S&P 500 was down in 9 of its last 12 sessions. The uncertainty, especially over the debt ceiling and possible “default,” has made investors hesitant to make longer-term commitments with their investible funds. Nevertheless, the data from the […]