The Fed: “We Don’t Talk About Rate Cuts – No! No! No!”
The title of this blog was inspired by Disney’s Encanto, a story about a family living in a charmed villa in the mountains of Columbia. Cracks begin to appear in the foundation of the grand villa, and it is Bruno, an ostracized family member, who holds the key to stop the foundation from crumbling. The […]
As Inflation Fades and Incoming Data Disappoint The Fed Appears Intransigent
The headline CPI reading of no price inflation (0.0%) in October surprised the financial markets (but not us). It caused a bond market rally as yields (especially on the long end) fell. Then the PPI (Producer Price Index) showed up with a negative number for October (-0.5%), and this is generally a harbinger of what […]
Rates Spike, Sentiment Softens – Real Inflation Already at Target
Is a Recession Imminent? The relentless upward spike in interest rates continued this past week despite Fedspeak implying that the Fed will continue to be in “pause” mode, at least at the November 1st meeting. Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes closed on Friday (October 20) at 4.91%. During the trading day, the 10-Year almost pierced […]
Data Not Conducive to Wall Street’s “Soft-Landing” Scenario
One of the two major economic/market events that occurred last week (week of August 20) was the stellar performance of Nvidia (NVDA) which, unlike the retailers, beat on both top and bottom lines and whose stock price has soared from a 112 low last October to a high print of nearly 503 early on Friday […]
The Pandemic Caused Significant Economic Impacts; Not All Inflation Is Related
Over the last several blogs, we have opined that the pandemic hasn’t changed the economy’s potential growth path. The chart shows GDP growth rates beginning in the mid-1990s (with the Atlanta Fed’s +1.3% Q3/2021 forecast). The horizontal line shows a 2% growth level. Note that the left-hand side of the chart shows much higher growth than the right-hand […]
Delta-Variant, Soft Data Bode Ill for Near-Term Growth
The markets waited all week for Fed Chair Powell to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Due to the Delta-variant, like many other business meetings, this one was held virtually. There was growing market concern that Powell would turn somewhat more hawkish, especially since some Regional Fed Presidents appear to have […]