Markets Pay Little Attention to Emerging Data That is, Until They Do

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on Thursday (January 25) on the heels of an unexpectedly robust +3.3% annualized growth rate of real GDP for Q4. Market expectations had been for a +2.0% print, and even the normally optimistic Atlanta Fed GDP Now model was only calling for +2.3% The chart shows the sources […]

Despite “Strong” Jobs Report, Recession Still Locked In

November’s jobs report surprised to the upside. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose +199k, close to the +185k consensus view. But, it was the sister survey, the Household Survey (HS), that shocked the financial markets, as it rose +747k, more than doubly offsetting its -348k fall in October. So, it isn’t a surprise that the Unemployment Rate […]

The Fed: “We Don’t Talk About Rate Cuts – No! No! No!”

The title of this blog was inspired by Disney’s Encanto, a story about a family living in a charmed villa in the mountains of Columbia. Cracks begin to appear in the foundation of the grand villa, and it is Bruno, an ostracized family member, who holds the key to stop the foundation from crumbling. The […]

As Inflation Fades and Incoming Data Disappoint The Fed Appears Intransigent

The headline CPI reading of no price inflation (0.0%) in October surprised the financial markets (but not us). It caused a bond market rally as yields (especially on the long end) fell. Then the PPI (Producer Price Index) showed up with a negative number for October (-0.5%), and this is generally a harbinger of what […]

Rates Spike, Sentiment Softens – Real Inflation Already at Target

Is a Recession Imminent? The relentless upward spike in interest rates continued this past week despite Fedspeak implying that the Fed will continue to be in “pause” mode, at least at the November 1st meeting. Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes closed on Friday (October 20) at 4.91%. During the trading day, the 10-Year almost pierced […]

Data Not Conducive to Wall Street’s “Soft-Landing” Scenario

One of the two major economic/market events that occurred last week (week of August 20) was the stellar performance of Nvidia (NVDA) which, unlike the retailers, beat on both top and bottom lines and whose stock price has soared from a 112 low last October to a high print of nearly 503 early on Friday […]