Deflation’s Persistence Implies Yields Will Be Lower for Longer
Despite what you hear from the TV pundits, the U.S.’s second quarter ended on weakness, and there is little evidence that economic acceleration occurred. In previous years, slow GDP growth in Q1 was followed by 3%+ in Q2. Not this time! The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, which uses a lot of sentiment indicators, is all […]
US Economy: Stealth Inflationary Pressures Are Not Yet Priced Into Markets
n countries where central banks are printing money, such as the US, UK, eurozone, and Japan, deflation is the fear. On the other hand, inflation is high in countries where central banks have followed more traditional policies, like Brazil (official inflation 5.9%), India (11.5%), Indonesia (8.4%), and Turkey (7.4%). One explanation is the carry trade. […]