The Risk of Recession is Rising; So is Market Risk
Recession: This is the hardest world for any business economist to pen, especially when the equity market is on a tear. Nevertheless, that is the reality of a slow growth, deflationary world where not much negative must happen to push the 1% growth economy into negative territory. Post-election, markets initially rose on the hopes of […]
Economic recovery close to self-sustaining
Economic recovery close to self-sustaining Each and every day there is a consistent drumbeat that the equity markets are in nosebleed territory and that the end of the six-year bull market is close. Don’t believe it! Almost all of the underlying indexes, anecdotal evidence, and most of the headline data indicate that the economy is […]
The Fed returns to the shadows
At the end of August, the Standard & Poor’s 500 reached another new milestone, closing above 2,000 for the first time ever. And even the NASDAQ, at nearly 4,600, is now within striking distance of 5,000, a mark it set almost 15 years ago. The fact that the stock market continues to rise in the […]
If You Build It, They Won’t Come: Opinion
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.– Charles Darwin I am often asked: “When do you think the economy will return to normal?” My response: If by “normal” you mean what we had from the 1980s to 2008 — the “if […]