The Rate Spike Will Damage the Recovery
Fed Intervention Needed There was quite a spike in interest rates the last week of February with the 10-Year T-Note spiking from a 1.36% level as of the close on Wednesday to as high as 1.60% intraday with a close of 1.55% on Thursday. Friday’s close was 1.45%. But, a lot of damage was done. […]
The Economy: Damaged Labor Markets; An Inflation Head Fake
On Friday, February 5, markets were set to rise no matter what the employment data showed. If they beat to the upside, that would validate the reflation/pent-up demand narrative. If they disappointed, well, that would simply mean more fiscal and monetary largesse (which financial markets love). Either way, heads markets rise; tails, ditto. Labor Market […]
Bubble Markets Display Bizarre Behavior
Right Before They Tumble Like the Dot.Com bubble of the late ‘90s, the typical signs of an approaching bubble bust were on full display in the equity markets last week (week ending January 29th). GameStop (GME) and other failing or troubled companies (AMC, Blackberry, Nokia, Bed Bath) have become the darlings of the WallStreetBets (WSB) […]
“V” vs. “u” and the Flawed Inflation Narrative
The equity markets finally took a breather last week (ended January 15th), with the S&P 500 falling a mere 1.5%; that’s down from its record high a week earlier. Perhaps the really poor economic data played a role, but then again, equity markets like such poor data because it means more stimulus (Biden’s $1.9 trillion […]
We Don’t Live in “Normal” Times
The equity markets are in one of those rare moods where they continue to rise no matter the news, even when there are riots in the nation’s capitol complex, and when non-farm payrolls fall -140K. Would you say this is “normal?” Regarding inflation expectations, interest rates rose rapidly along the Treasury yield curve with the […]
The Real Recession Is Just Starting
At month’s end, we are going to see the BLS announce a 30%+ bounce in real GDP (the Atlanta Fed’s forecast is now above 35%). Much of this is already priced into the equity market, so a positive or negative reaction will only occur if the reported number is significantly above or below the consensus view. In […]