Despite Wall Street Hype, Inflation is Not Imminent

Retail sales rose a record 5.3% M/M in January after three months in a row of decline.  No doubt the $600 checks from the late December “helicopter” money drop played a large role.  The Atlanta Fed now says that their GDP model pegs the current quarter’s growth at +9.5% (Annual Rate (AR)).  In addition, Industrial […]

As the Economy Stagnates, Equity Markets Pivot

Market volatility has marred the last few equity sessions.  The popular indexes all peaked on September 2nd, with the most closely watched S&P 500 down nearly -7% and the tech heavy Nasdaq nearly -10%.  But, don’t be fooled by the indexes.  Anyone with a diversified portfolio has likely had a significantly different experience in 2020. […]

Get used to heightened market volatility

The sentiment surveys indicate that the economy continues to perform well. The underlying data say otherwise. People take their cue from the stock market when it comes to assessing economic health. And, as long as the stock market is near dizzying heights, the sentiment surveys will say the economy is doing well. The hard data […]

The Economy from 50,000 Feet

A few friends have expressed the belief that interest rates have nowhere to go but up. This, of course, has been the mantra of the market for the past several years, and, perhaps, my friends have been listening too long to the talking heads on bubblevision. Here’s why it won’t happen: Today’s U.S. economy has […]