The Recession Will Bring Deflation
If there ever was a competition for a company that most reflected the state of the economy, FedEx would be in the final four. In Q1, its revenues fell -10%, and earnings were off -28%. On top of that, they guided even lower than the already reduced market estimates. Nevertheless, the media and Wall Street […]
Market Volatility to Continue – It’s the Economy (Stupid)!
Financial market volatility continued this past week (ending March 3). The equity indexes were up about 2% for the week (the Nasdaq slightly more) after shedding nearly -3% the prior week. They don’t seem to be able to make up their minds as to their direction. It’s a similar story for the fixed-income markets. The […]
Despite Wall Street Hype, Inflation is Not Imminent
Retail sales rose a record 5.3% M/M in January after three months in a row of decline. No doubt the $600 checks from the late December “helicopter” money drop played a large role. The Atlanta Fed now says that their GDP model pegs the current quarter’s growth at +9.5% (Annual Rate (AR)). In addition, Industrial […]
As the Economy Stagnates, Equity Markets Pivot
Market volatility has marred the last few equity sessions. The popular indexes all peaked on September 2nd, with the most closely watched S&P 500 down nearly -7% and the tech heavy Nasdaq nearly -10%. But, don’t be fooled by the indexes. Anyone with a diversified portfolio has likely had a significantly different experience in 2020. […]
Get used to heightened market volatility
The sentiment surveys indicate that the economy continues to perform well. The underlying data say otherwise. People take their cue from the stock market when it comes to assessing economic health. And, as long as the stock market is near dizzying heights, the sentiment surveys will say the economy is doing well. The hard data […]
The Economy from 50,000 Feet
A few friends have expressed the belief that interest rates have nowhere to go but up. This, of course, has been the mantra of the market for the past several years, and, perhaps, my friends have been listening too long to the talking heads on bubblevision. Here’s why it won’t happen: Today’s U.S. economy has […]