An approaching financial crisis — reality or myth?
The data seen so far in Q2 are somewhat better than Q1, and Q1’s real GDP growth has been upgraded from a miserable 0.5 percent to a miserly 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy remains in first gear, mainly due to the oil patch and continued sluggish manufacturing activity. With such poor results from a record-breaking […]
After review, media’s take on retail is reversed
“There are lies, damn lies, and statistics” goes a saying popularized by Mark Twain which describes the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. At dinner a couple of weeks ago with business colleagues and later repeated by another business acquaintance, comments were made about how poorly the retail […]
Economic recovery close to self-sustaining
Economic recovery close to self-sustaining Each and every day there is a consistent drumbeat that the equity markets are in nosebleed territory and that the end of the six-year bull market is close. Don’t believe it! Almost all of the underlying indexes, anecdotal evidence, and most of the headline data indicate that the economy is […]
Part II: The Long-Term Outlook – Even a Strong Economy Doesn’t Change the Ultimate Outcome
If you’ve read Part I of this year end outlook, you know that it is our view that the underlying private sector is healthy and, except for the fact that the real rate of inflation is much faster than the ‘official’ rate, we could well have a short period of prosperity. Unfortunately, our long-term outlook […]