Fed Transparency = Market Volatility

Markets have tanked since the worse-than-expected CPI reading, and the latest Fed hawkishness means no Powell “pivot,” no Fed “Put,” and no soft-landing. The table shows the market peak for the four major indexes, the level and percentage changes at the market’s trough at June’s end, the levels and percentage changes from the top of […]

Headline Data Say the Economy is Solid

Markets Know Better Market reaction and direction were always going to be about the employment numbers. At first glance, the +315K from the BLS’ Payroll Survey looked “solid,” and equities rose more than 1% in Friday’s early going. But, as further analysis occurred, markets ended the day significantly in negative territory. Apparently, the details below […]

Less Hawkish Fed – Don’t Celebrate!

Less Hawkish Fed – Don’t Celebrate! They’re Still Tightening into a Recession

 They’re Still Tightening into a Recession Most of the economic news this week was downbeat. Even the normally buoyant U.S. consumer appears to be retrenching as July’s Retail Sales were flat (0.0% M/M). Both equity and bond prices ended the week somewhat lower with the DJIA barely moving, but the tech heavy Nasdaq and small […]

Pols and Bureaucrats Insist There Is “No Recession”

Pols and Bureaucrats Insist There Is “No Recession” That Doesn’t Change Reality!

THAT DOESN’T CHANGE REALITY! The Fed raised the Federal Funds interest rate (the rate banks pay for reserves) on Wednesday by 75 basis points (bps) (0.75 pct. points) from 1.50% to 2.25%, and on Thursday, the BEA reported real Q2 GDP fell -0.9%.  That’s the second quarter in a row of negative real GDP growth; […]

Inflation Peaks, Economy Weakens

The Fed’s Last Hurrah It was a down week for equity markets due to the ugly CPI print (+9.1% Y/Y) on Wednesday (July 13).  Some recovery occurred on Friday with markets using the +1.0% M/M Retail Sales number as the latest hope that the economic slowdown will result in a soft-landing. While the coincident and […]

Why Bonds Now Belong

Jim Cramer of CNBC has a saying: “There’s always a bull market somewhere.  My job is to help you find it!”  Rule #5 of Bob Farrell’s famous 10 Rules for Investing states: “The Public Buys the Most at the Top and the Least at the Bottom.”  His Rule #9 says: “When All the Experts Agree, […]