If You Think the Banking Issues Are One and Done, Think Again!

The banking chaos appears to have calmed somewhat this week, with no new banks targeted for deposit outflows. The chart shows that as of the close of business on Thursday, March 30, small and mid-sized bank stock prices have stopped falling. Note: they haven’t risen, either. If anyone thinks this was one-and-done and it’s over […]

Obtuse: The Fed & Treasury View of Banking Issues

Despite ongoing silent runs on the Regional and Community Banks, it appears that both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen view the events of the recent past (SVB, Signature Bank, First Republic, Credit Suisse, and now Deutsche Bank) as one-off events and not symptomatic of stress in the world’s financial system. The dictionary defines […]

An Anatomy of the Banking Crisis

Last Friday (March 10), seemingly out of the blue, the financial world was rocked by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), then Signature Bank. This week we saw the contagion spread to Europe (Credit Suisse). The chart above shows the rapid plunge this past week in the S&P Regional Bank Index, which is not […]

The Silicon Valley Bank Insolvency and the Oncoming Recession: Blame the Fed

The big market-moving event of the week was supposed to be the February jobs numbers on Friday (March 10), but there was never a mention of those numbers in the financial media, upstaged by the second largest and completely unexpected bank failure in U.S. history, i.e., Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The real issue here, which […]

Market Volatility to Continue – It’s the Economy (Stupid)!

Financial market volatility continued this past week (ending March 3). The equity indexes were up about 2% for the week (the Nasdaq slightly more) after shedding nearly -3% the prior week. They don’t seem to be able to make up their minds as to their direction. It’s a similar story for the fixed-income markets. The […]

CPI Will Set the Tone for Financial Markets

It was a light week for economic data, giving markets time to digest and analyze the prior week’s Fed meeting and the unexpected jobs numbers. By Friday (February 10), with the Fed’s unanimous FOMC view that the future held interest rate increases (plural) and reinforced by the spectacular +517,000 jobs numbers, the markets threw in […]