The Economy Slows; The Real “New Normal”

The virus’ resurgence has caused more business disruptions, raising the specter of a renewed economic slowdown.  Spending and income numbers have mainly been negative in Q4, and the much hoped for stimulus relief package is now stuck on the president’s desk. The Economy “Drop in Spending, Higher Claims Cloud Outlook for Growth,” WSJ, 12/24/20, A1. […]

Policy Rx for Recession Aggravates Income Inequality

T’was the week before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was spending, not even your spouse; the stockings were hung by the chimney with flairs, in hopes that the Congress would supplement CARES. And so, it appears that the economy continues to deteriorate as the Congress attempts to put together another stimulus […]

Inflation Expectations Rise Even as the Economy Cools

It has now become clear, and mainstream, that the economy weakened significantly in November, and that such weakness will carry forward to year’s end, at a minimum.  The weakness occurred primarily in the services sector as the virus’ resurgence caused some governors to mandate new or additional service business restrictions. As a result, jobless claims […]

Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality

The holidays are upon us, and we wish our clients and friends health, peace and happiness. Recent income, output, and employment data have turned sour. We’ll see what that does to holiday shopping. The financial markets, especially equities, have looked past the valley (abyss), and the vaccine news has enhanced the view that “normal,” or at […]

Vaccine: That Pinhead of Light at Tunnel’s End

Pfizer’s vaccine announcement gave the equity market the vision and hope that some semblance of “normal” was closer than previously assumed; perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel. Reality is that, due both to the complex logistics of handling the Pfizer vaccine, the two shot inoculation process, and the voluntary system in America, […]

The Economy: Through the Rear-View Mirror

The upbeat October employment report is likely showing the labor market through the rear-view mirror. The weekly state employment numbers, too, as reported in the mainstream business media, only tell half the story.  The entire story includes an additional 9+ million people on Cares Act supplements; a program that is growing as state eligibility is […]