Soft Employment, Inflation, Retail – Economic Implications
The employment reports last week (week ending September 1) had to dishearten the “soft-landing” crowd, as all the employment data showed emerging softness. It began with the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) on Tuesday (August 29). That survey showed job openings shrinking to 8.83 million in July. While that still appears to be […]
The Recession Will Bring Deflation
If there ever was a competition for a company that most reflected the state of the economy, FedEx would be in the final four. In Q1, its revenues fell -10%, and earnings were off -28%. On top of that, they guided even lower than the already reduced market estimates. Nevertheless, the media and Wall Street […]
Why the Fed is Bluffing
As expected, the Fed “paused” after 10 straight rate hikes. They characterized this as a “skip,” not a “pause,” as the former implies the rate hiking regime is still in place while the latter has been construed to mean that the hiking cycle is over. The Fed does not want to convey that for fear […]
Obtuse: The Fed & Treasury View of Banking Issues
Despite ongoing silent runs on the Regional and Community Banks, it appears that both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen view the events of the recent past (SVB, Signature Bank, First Republic, Credit Suisse, and now Deutsche Bank) as one-off events and not symptomatic of stress in the world’s financial system. The dictionary defines […]
CPI Will Set the Tone for Financial Markets
It was a light week for economic data, giving markets time to digest and analyze the prior week’s Fed meeting and the unexpected jobs numbers. By Friday (February 10), with the Fed’s unanimous FOMC view that the future held interest rate increases (plural) and reinforced by the spectacular +517,000 jobs numbers, the markets threw in […]
Upon Further Review: That “Hot” Labor Market Is Really “Ice Cold”
There are two surveys put out every month: The Payroll or Establishment Survey, which is the one that gets the headlines, and the Household Survey. The Payroll Survey only surveys large and medium-sized businesses and counts the number of jobs. The Household Survey calls on households and only asks if people in the household are […]