The Recovery Stalls; Fed Pledges “Lower for Longer;” Equity Markets Pause
With the Fed pledging to keep rates low even when (or if) inflation rises above its 2% target, it is hard to see why long-term Treasury yields (and those of other quality issuers) won’t move toward yields of similar debt in the world’s other industrial economies (i.e., Europe and Japan). The economic lull is now […]
Money Explodes; Gold Glitters; The Recovery Slows
I often get asked why the price of gold is rising, and, as a follow on, will it continue. The price of gold has always had a significant correlation (80%) with the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., the “money supply”), especially during periods of significant balance sheet expansion (money printing). The table shows the Y/Y change […]
The Trump Rally
For the third time in six months, markets reacted opposite to expectations. First, it was Brexit. Markets swooned after the unexpected vote. That lasted for two days before markets shook off the surprise and headed higher. Last month, when Trump won, the swoon lasted a whole 9 hours, and the tantrum ended just prior to […]
China slowdown won’t send US economy into a dive
Since China devalued its currency in late August, the capital markets have become volatile. The markets clearly fear that contagion from China’s weakening economy could somehow infect the U.S., a theme that has been way overdone. Market volatility wasn’t helped when the Fed irrationally delayed its long anticipated rate rise in mid-September. China’s Growth Let’s […]
“Set it and forget it” a terrible portfolio philosophy
“Set it and forget it” a terrible portfolio philosophy Robert Barone, Ph.D. 2:53 p.m. PDT April 30, 2015 Neither passive investment strategies nor robo-advisors can maximize profits as well as active management Today’s Wall Street is perpetuating the idea that investor portfolios cannot perform better than the market indexes. The markets are “efficient,” they say, […]
Uncertainties driving the markets
Originally published on RGJ’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/20/uncertainties-driving-markets/25113763/ The financial markets have been focused on three uncertainties: the strong and rising value of the dollar vis a vis other currencies, weakening U.S. economic indicators, and the timing and magnitude of Fed policy actions. All this with a background of the ongoing Greek tragedy and continued political strife […]