Uncertainties driving the markets

Originally published on RGJ’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/20/uncertainties-driving-markets/25113763/ The financial markets have been focused on three uncertainties: the strong and rising value of the dollar vis a vis other currencies, weakening U.S. economic indicators, and the timing and magnitude of Fed policy actions. All this with a background of the ongoing Greek tragedy and continued political strife […]

More on Market Volatility

Despite the fact that the U.S. economy appears to be on solid ground, the equity markets appear confused and uncertain, and have exhibited volatility, including huge intraday point swings.  In what follows, I will examine the sources of the uncertainty and try to shed light on whether or not to worry.    1.  Global Economic […]

Should you invest with confidence?

Originally published on RGJ.com’s website http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2014/11/30/robert-barone-invest-confidence/19655523/ If an economist from the 1970s, ’80s or ’90s were to have time traveled forward to today, and that economist were to look at the macroeconomic environment, he/she would conclude that, despite the negativity of the media, the U.S. economy is actually doing well. • Third quarter real GDP […]

Should investors worry QE3 has ended?

Originally published on RGJ.com’s website http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2014/11/16/robert-barone-investors-worry-qe-ended/19080941/ As October ended, the Fed announced an end to its controversial money printing policy, known as QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing). In QE3, the Fed purchased large quantities of U.S government securities. When the Fed purchases bonds, it creates new money in the form of bank reserves. […]

Monetary, fiscal farce in Europe continues

First published at RGJ.com http://www.rgj.com/story/money/economy/2014/06/15/robert-barone-monetary-fiscal-farce-europe-continues/10515411/ The  European Union economies have been in, or nearly in, recession since the financial crisis in ’09. Greece has had to be bailed out several times. Spain, too, and in the case of Cyprus, bank depositors bore much of the cost. Italy and Portugal are lucky they avoided such bailouts. […]

The European Farce: Part 2 — How to Grow GDP

First published in Minyaville.com http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/The-European-Farce-Part-3-How/6/12/2014/id/55270 Without a growing GDP, the size of the deficit must shrink. The EU economies have been in or nearly in recession since the financial crisis in 2009. Greece has had to be bailed out several times.  Spain, too, and in the case of Cyprus, bank depositors bore much of the […]