GDP Growth Will Slow – Likely to Turn Negative
The economic story of the week was the “hot” 4.9% GDP print. The chart shows this in relationship to the recent past, with the dotted line showing the long-run 1.8% growth rate of the economy. The 4.9% is an annualized number, so the actual growth from Q2 was just under 1.5%, and the year/tear growth […]
GDP Beats – Sorry, No Soft Landing
And OPEC+ Threatens Dollar Reserve Currency Status There were two major economic announcements last week. The Q4/22 GDP, released by the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) on Thursday (January 26th) was fawned over by the media. As we analyze below, some pundits falsely conclude that the +2.9% annualized growth rate was a sign that the […]
Why Q3’s GDP Print Doesn’t Mean Recession Avoidance
The only saving grace of the GDP report was its headline +2.6%. As it turns out, Net Exports added 2.8 percentage points, and for the wrong reasons. Excluding Net Exports, the domestic economy’s GDP growth was -0.2%. The Recession continues. While the country still has a large negative balance of trade, it is the change […]
The Pandemic Caused Significant Economic Impacts; Not All Inflation Is Related
Over the last several blogs, we have opined that the pandemic hasn’t changed the economy’s potential growth path. The chart shows GDP growth rates beginning in the mid-1990s (with the Atlanta Fed’s +1.3% Q3/2021 forecast). The horizontal line shows a 2% growth level. Note that the left-hand side of the chart shows much higher growth than the right-hand […]
For Nine Million, Unemployment Benefits Have Suddenly Ended
The Economic Implications One of the major Wall Street investment houses recently lowered their Q3 GDP growth rate from 6.5% to 2.9% (!!), apparently realizing that two-thirds of the quarter was history, that the data have all been weakening (like August auto sales), and that the fiscal stimulus (helicopter money) was now in the rear-view […]
Inflation Is Fading; So Is The Economy; But Jobs Will Grow
The “inflation” story has now moved to page two, not because it isn’t still the financial media’s mantra, but the disaster of the Afghanistan exit has taken its place. We don’t think it will make its way back to page 1. The reason: the burst of economic activity, for the Q1 and Q2 economic reopenings, […]