The Economy Has ‘Recovered’ – Anemic Growth To Follow
The September jobs report was filled with cross-currents, some showing possible economic weakness, some showing strength. This makes the Fed’s job exceedingly difficult. Is the economy strengthening or weakening? What’s the correct monetary policy prescription? “Taper” asset purchases? Raise interest rates? Since September payrolls were so ambiguous, perhaps October’s (which will be available to the Fed prior to its November meeting) […]
On Reopening: We’ve Just Seen The Iceberg’s Tip
New Data Should Accelerate Re-Opening When the pandemic started, the only data available was the number of new cases, existing cases, and deaths. The original models, perhaps based on prior pandemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918, forecast significant deaths, up to as many as 2 million in the U.S., and, of course, mass infections. Based on […]
Where’s The Recession, You Ask? Reprise
The narrative is that the “soft patch”, now so evident in U.S. data, is temporary, related to factors like weather, the government shut-down, and/or trade/tariffs. The Atlanta Fed, where GDP forecasts always seem to come out on the high side, put Q1’s real GDP growth at just +0.3%. And, the N.Y. Fed’s model says +0.9%. […]
Heightened Volatility! Blame the Fed
Volatility returned to financial markets with a vengeance in October. In the 12 market sessions between October 4th and October 19th, eight were negative (a total of -2,324 Dow Points) while four were positive (+940). In those 12 sessions, seven were triple digit; unfortunately, five of those triples were negative. Why the sudden turn and […]
Q4: A Look at the Post-Hurricane Economy
As Q3 ended, the economy continued on its tepid growth path. Unknown is the value of the economic carnage of two hurricanes that hit the mainland and a third that completely devastated Puerto Rico. The bond and foreign exchange (FX) markets have a sense that all is not well, but, the equity indexes haven’t yet […]
Harvey & Irma: Pushing the Economy to the Tipping Point
Hurricane Harvey devastated the Houston area (and economy), and, while Irma could have been much worse, it still left significant destruction in Florida and the southeast. What we can say for sure is that the monetary impact of Harvey alone would have been the largest natural disaster in U.S. history, and now we must add […]